Begum on the Backfoot: Controversial parliamentary election plunges Bangladesh into fresh political uncertainty

SALEEM SAMAD

There was something amiss about Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina celebrating the Awami League's landslide victory-it took 232 of 300 seats-in the January 5 elections to Parliament. For starters, it was a one-sided contest; the opposition alliance of 18 parties led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the polls. In Dhaka a day after the results, Hasina was both jubilant and defiant. She dismissed critics who questioned the legitimacy of the polls held amid boycott and bloodshed-24 people were killed on polling day. The next day, she asked her main political rival Begum Khaleda Zia to "shut up and negotiate" an end to the country's political paralysis.

Hasina will find it harder to deal with international opinion. The US said the elections lacked credibility and called for fresh polls. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon criticised the Awami League and BNP and urged them to resume meaningful dialogue. Britain and Canada expressed dismay that candidates were elected unopposed on more than half of the 300 seats. The estimated 40 per cent voter turnout was the lowest in the country's ten elections. Even Hasina's longtime regional supporter, India, issued a guarded statement, terming the polls a "constitutional requirement" and an "internal process of Bangladesh".

Imtiaz Ahmed, a political scientist at the University of Dhaka, believes fresh polls are critical to satisfy the international donors. "Resource-starved Bangladesh needs annual aid of nearly $3 billion for poverty reduction and development projects," he says.

The loss of international credibility is just one of the worries for Hasina. The crisis caused by the political impasse is expected to intensify after her government's five-year term expires on January 24. Violence that has been unleashed by BNP since the elections were called in November threatens to engulf the entire economy. Sporadic incidents of violence continue. A blockade has crippled highway and railway transport, work and education. Economic activity has ground to a halt and Bangladesh's main export earner, the garment sector which employs nearly six million people, has been severely affected. Factories are running under capacity as 75 days of strikes have disrupted raw material supplies and delivery of finished goods.

Inflation rose by about 0.2 percentage point to touch 7.35 per cent in December last year as a direct result of the violence. "I am eagerly waiting for the deadlock to end. If it doesn't happen, I will be forced to cut costs for my survival," says Nasiruddin Biswas, chairman of Nasir Group of Industries, one of Bangladesh's largest industrial conglomerates valued at $256 million.

Hasina's government has blamed the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which has long been an ally of Khaleda Zia's BNP, for the terror campaign and militancy in Bangladesh. In 2010, her government began trials of jei leaders who were accused of participating in a genocide that left more than a million Bangladeshis dead during the 1971 war of liberation. On December 13, senior jei leader Abdul Quader Molla was hanged after being sentenced by a war crimes court. In August, the Supreme Court declared jei illegal and banned it from contesting elections.

Political analysts believe Hasina is unlikely to call fresh polls before the war crime trials are completed next year. Election boycotts have been an important tool in Bangladesh's Battle of the Begums. Khaleda Zia boycotted the 1988 general elections held under the autocratic rule of General Husain Muhammad Ershad. Sheikh Hasina boycotted the 1996 elections when Khaleda Zia was prime minister. Khaleda announced a boycott of the 2014 elections in November after the Hasina government rejected her proposal for a neutral caretaker government to supervise the polls. Since then, more than 120 people have been killed and over 900 buses torched. A disturbing trend has been attacks by suspected jei extremists on the minority Hindu community, which makes up about 10 per cent of the country's 180 million population. Attacks, and looting, have been reported from Satkhira, Dinajpur and Jessore districts, forcing thousands of Hindus to flee their homes for temporary shelters.

At her January 6 press conference, Hasina left the door open for dialogue. And Khaleda Zia agreed. "There is no solution other than talks," she told BBC. But Khaleda insists that the dialogue should be held before the government's current term ends. She has also laid other preconditions, including that she be freed from unofficial house arrest. It is now Hasina's move to make. The world is watching. 

First published in India Today magazine, January 10, 2014

Saleem Samad is an Ashoka Fellow (USA) for trendsetting journalism, he contributes for India Today, The Week, Outlook magazines in India and Karachi, Pakistan based Southasia magazine. You can follow her on Twitter - @saleemsamad

Bangladesh: Politics of fury

Elections may not put an end to the political upheaval in Dhaka

SALEEM SAMAD

On January 5, Bangladesh will hold elections to 300 seats in Jatiyo Sangshad, its parliament. But, unlike in the past, there is no excitement in the air. With the opposition staying away from the polls, as many as 153 candidates have been elected unopposed. The ruling Awami League is sure to bag majority, as 127 of the candidates belong to the party. Fear of political violence is likely to deter voters from casting their ballots.

Badiul Alam Majumder, secretary of Sujon, an NGO that advocates good governance, calls the election a farce. In December, the opposition, which consists of 18 parties led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), decided to boycott the polls, after its demands for a non-party caretaker government to supervise “a free, fair and credible election” were rejected by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

The opposition and Hasina had been at loggerheads over the election for several months. The rift deepened on December 13, when Abdul Quader Mollah, leader of BNP's ally Jamaat-e-Islami, was executed for atrocities committed during the country's liberation struggle in 1971. Claiming that Hasina was bent on eliminating opponents, the JeI unleashed a violent campaign against the government.

The JeI's opponents say its fundamentalist ideology has no place in a secular country like Bangladesh. The country's supreme court, too, echoed the view on August 1, when it ruled that the JeI's registration as a political party was illegal. Following the verdict, the election commission banned the party from contesting the January 5 polls. Party leaders, however, have vowed to carry on their campaign, saying Mollah's trial was politically motivated.

But experts say the JeI is a spent force. According to Prof. Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah of Dhaka University, the party's struggle is meaningless, as it cannot hope to hold any public office in the near future. He also said that, unlike what Hasina had been saying, the election would be “exclusive, not inclusive”. “The silent majority will lose confidence in the polls and refrain from participating,” said Kalimullah.

Fears of violence, he insisted, were misplaced. “I do not see any reason for violence. Not on poll day, because of the deployment of military troops and para-military forces,” he said.

But, even if the government manages to avoid bloodshed during the polls, the future seems rather grim. The JeI has said if Hasina plans to push ahead with her repressive tactics, the consequences would be dreadful. Also, experts point out that attempts by the government to neutralise the JeI could result in the party becoming more radicalised.

Though the JeI remains belligerent, the BNP has been reportedly participating in secret parleys with the Awami League to put an end to the political clashes that have plagued Dhaka in recent times. Apparently, the eagerness of the BNP to solve the impasse could be one reason it deliberately ignored the ban on the JeI.

The efforts to broker a deal, however, are yet to succeed. The violence in Dhaka has left people's lives and public utilities in ruins. Nearly 500 people have been killed and thousands injured in clashes since March last year. Nearly 900 vehicles, mostly public transport buses, have been torched. State-run medical facilities are overrun by the injured, most of whom are from low-income groups who dared to venture out of their homes in search of work. With education and tourism on the verge of collapse, and intermittent blockades affecting the business climate, experts point out that the next casualty could well be the ailing economy.

First appeared in The Week magazine, January 3, 2014

Saleem Samad is an Ashoka Fellow (USA) and Bangladesh based award winning journalist

Noose tightens on Bangladesh opposition

After the execution of a senior Jamaat-e-Islami leader, the religious party faces an uncertain future.

SALEEM SAMAD

Hours after Bangladesh executed Abdul Quader Molla, a top opposition leader, for his role in the 1971 civil war that culminated into Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan activists from his party, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), staged riots. Violence has continued in the country following the December 12 hanging, leading to dozens of deaths.

More than 100 JeI activists have been detained in a nation-wide crackdown.

Molla's execution has lead to heated debates about the role of political Islam in the country and the future for religious opposition parties.

"Bangladesh will be the first country to bury 'political Islam' which wrecked the traditional secular fabric of the society since independence in 1971," explains professor Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, who teaches Public Affairs in the Dhaka University.

'Surge and Decline'

JeI had opposed the break-up of Pakistan and fought alongside Pakistan's military against pro-Independence forces. It was banned from politics upon the formation of Bangladesh.

But a military coup in 1975 lifted the ban on JeI. During the 1980s, the religious party joined a multi-party coalition and later supported the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In October 2001, it emerged as the country's third largest party, securing 17 seats in the 300-member parliament. Both the JeI and BNP led by Begum Khaleda Zia replaced the Awami League (AL), which had been in power since 1996.

In 2008, AL led by Sheikh Hasina came back to power even as JeI's popularity waned when it won a mere 5 seats in national elections. And in 2010 AL began war crimes trials for events surrounding the independence struggle under Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT).

Molla became the first person convicted by the tribunal. He was initially sentenced to life in prison in February. Calling a life sentence as too lenient, thousands across Bangladeshdemanded he be hanged. And in September, the Supreme Court overturned life in prison and replaced it with a death sentence.

With his hanging, some observers believe JeI's power also has been executed.

While war veterans from 1971 and thousands of pro-independence youths rejoiced after the hanging, the JeI's acting head Moqbul Ahmed warned "people would [want] revenge" on the party's website, which triggered a massive crackdown against JeI activists.

Ahmed has called on the international community to raise its voice against the "repression on the opposition".

"Since coming to power the government (of Awami League) has practiced unbridled corruption, nepotism and even torture upon members of the opposition. They are now making a last-ditch attempt to stay in power indefinitely by amending the constitution and destroying the state apparatus. They have abolished the caretaker system of government and have enacted a new system to hold elections under their own party government," the Jamaat chief said, something which its political partner BNP also backs.

Both the parties have in recent months launched blockades; often resulting in violence and killings, to press for their demands but the ruling AL so far seems unwilling to budge.

JeI says crackdown on its members and the hanging of its leader was "politically motivated".

But others feel the executions were fair, as Jamaat's paramilitary Al Badr had committed "heinous war abuses" for which they need to be punished.

According to M A Hasan, of the War Crimes Fact Finding Committee, an independent body investigating the 1971 massacres: "Al Badr had been engaged in forced abduction and execution of Bangla-speaking pro-independence nationalists and secularists to brutally muzzle the voices for freedom."

The war historian's documents claim that "local henchmen" allied with Pakistani soldiers were involved in "killing at least 3 million and sexual abusing 400,000 women during the nine months civil war."

Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and UN rights experts have continued their criticism of the war crimes tribunals and the laws under which they operate.

However, Bangladeshi authorities have always argued that they met national standards and that justice is needed for war crimes committed during the bloody war of independence from Pakistan.

'Partner's silence'

The BNP, Jel's erstwhile political ally, has been conspicuously silent since Molla's execution.

It is currently pre-occupied in talks with the ruling AL over how to break the political deadlock.

"It seems BNP is more desperate for a political solution than stalemate and may have deliberately overlooked JeI's concerns," Ahmed explains.

The BNP has been holding series of blockades of the country's transport system since December in protest of holding what it says is "farcical" election in January.

A court has already declared the registration of the JeI as "illegal" to contest national polls.

" [The] BNP's strategic election partner has become a dead horse and a political burden for the opposition," says Nzmul Ahsan Kalimullah, a professor of public administration at theUniversity of Dhaka. "It is time for BNP to shred JeI, which will bring an end to political Islam which has haunted the nation apparently for 30 years."

'Uncertain future'

JeI may not be a dead horse but even some party insiders believe it is facing a worst crisis in its 40-year-long political history in Bangladesh.

"It would be a Herculean task to survive against the ruling party which has an overwhelming majority in the government," says explains Salauddin Babar, executive editor of the pro-JeI newspaper, Dainik Naya Diganta, and a senior JeI member. "It will be an uphill battle to survive the current political crisis JeI faces."

Babar believes that the crackdown weakend the party's chain of command and Jel could crack under the pressure.

"The political future of the party has been challenged after a sustained crackdown on the leadership. Jamaat's future is uncertain," he says.

First published in Al Jazeera news portal, December 21, 2013

Saleem Samad is an award winning Bangladesh based investigative journalist and an Ashoka Fellow. He is recipient of Hellman-Hammett Grants award by New Yorkbased Human Rights Watch (HRW) in 2005.

Khaleda Zia appeased every stakeholders, minus war crimes trial

SALEEM SAMAD

Opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia’s political formula was to enable to conduct the forthcoming parliament election for a democratic transition to a new elected government. The election expected in January next would decide who will govern the nation for the next five years (2014-2019). However, in a peculiar see-saw game of politics, the two rival political parties Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Awami League, which practices dynasty politic shared power since 1991.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s televised nation address last Friday outlines a political plan to hold general election with the participation of main opposition BNP. In response to Hasina, Khaleda’s press conference on Monday reveals a non-partisan interim administration to oversee the next elections. The proposal is accompanied by political pledge for the upcoming election came amidst looming political crisis; as predicted by scores of political analysts that the nation was heading towards uncertainty.

The alternative political resolution spelled out by Khaleda has opened broad spectrum for political debate. Her statement beamed live into million homes by private satellite television channels and breaking news in deshi online news portal gave opportunity for all to review, and ponder her political dictum. For some took a step backward to be confused.

Since evening the private TV channels galore with live talkshows debated on Khaleda Zia’s election formula, the formation of so-called caretaker government application.

In brief the constitutional experts and legal professionals argue that Khaleda’s proposal will not help resolve the ongoing political stalemate.

Her suggestion to usher advisors of the 1996 and 2001 caretaker governments was not welcomed either. Both Awami League and BNP had earlier rejected the election results, blaming vote fraud, which made the caretaker government controversial.

The constitution does have room for unelected person to head a government. Only 10 percent of unelected persons can be accepted as technocrat members.

Was there nothing new in her political statement of Khaleda Zia? Of course there were two things which came as surprises to civil society, political analysts and for those intellectuals who debated in late night live TV talk shows.

Khaleda, thrice elected prime minister since 1991 has deliberately appeased the Indians, United States, European Union, the United Nations and the Muslim countries.

She did not hesitate to offer olive branches to religious minorities, specially the Hindus and was apologetic to the Bangladeshi military. Well Khaleda never said sorry to the nation since she took charge of beleaguered BNP in 1979. For the first time she sought apology for any wrongdoings during her tenure.

What causes fears about her election pledge, she also stated during the Monday press conference was a missing agenda. A vital issue is deliberately missing from her political pledge. The future of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT)! She did not mention a word of the future of the ongoing trials of war crimes suspects. The fate of several war criminals waiting to walk into gallows.

Traditionally, as matter of political philosophy of the party BNP is anti-Indian and of course pro-Islamic, founded by her husband a liberation war hero General Ziaur Rahman, Bir Uttam. The General quickly scraped the trial of the ongoing war crimes trial and let go hundreds of suspected war criminals and also the convicted war criminals, who categorically belonged to Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Chattra Shibir, Muslim League and several other pro-Islamist political outfits. Zia handpicked several political leaders who literally opposed the independence of Bangladesh and elevated them to BNP leadership and even conferred them with ministerial positions. This gave opportunity of Islamist and radical Muslims to raise their heads from obscurity and show their fangs of hatred against India, the Hindus, Awami League and of course the liberation war veterans (muktijuddha).

Coming out of politics of hate, Khaleda in her press statement envisage reaching neighbours, despite trouble remains, which she believes will establish peace, stability, security and regional cooperation. BNP during their tenure in the government and also in opposition had been hostile with neighbouring India. Indian militant leaders lived comfortable life in posh residential areas of Dhaka. They ran businesses, established high schools, trucking and bus services and used Bangladesh passports to travel. Incidentally all the most-wanted militant leaders, except one were handed over to Indian authorities.

During her last unofficial visit to Delhi in 2012, Khaleda promised to help stop cross-border terrorism, refrain from opposing transit facilities with India, etc., etc. Why did good sense prevail upon Khaleda? She fervently urged Indian power-players to exert their good offices to influence Hasina to help bring back home her beloved son Tareque Rahman, the heir of BNP leadership.

The proposals by two arch political rivals Hasina and Khaleda in less than a week, the nation heaved a sigh of relief. Now the nation is unlikely to slide into political void, but uncertainty still remains. What will happen next?

Saleem Samad is an Ashoka Fellow for journalism, is an award winning investigative journalist. He is media practitioner and micro-blogger. He studied media and communication in Bangladesh and United States. He has co-authored several books.