India may slow, Bangladesh is hopeful BBIN-MVA

SALEEM SAMAD

After the recent official visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to Bhutan, Bangladesh is hopeful of pursuing the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Motor Vehicles Agreement (BBIN-MVA) inked at SAARC Summit in Kathmandu in June 2015.

India is likely to go slow on the implementation of the BBIN-MVA, keeping in mind the sentiments of close partner Bhutan where a section of the political establishment is opposing the initiative allegedly at the behest of the local transport lobby.

Bhutan Prime Minister Lyonpo Damcho Dorji at a press conference on the official visit of Sheikh Hasina told journalists that the two governments held a bilateral meeting on issues of trade, culture, agriculture and BBIN-MVA.

The Bhutanese prime minister said, "The BBIN-MVA is very important for connectivity in the region, which is one of the non-tariff barriers for trade. 

"For Bhutan, a landlocked country, we know the value of connectivity. Therefore, we have been supportive of the BBIN agreement."

However, Lyonpo candidly said, the public and the parliamentarians had some serious concerns because the implementation of the BBIN motor-vehicle agreement could result in seeing a huge influx of vehicles including passenger cars.

But quickly, Lyonpo said, there are certain provisions in the agreement and protocols, which will protect the interests of the respective countries. The Bhutanese government is clearly not in favor of 

trucking companies from India and Bangladesh enter Bhutan, an official of Bangladesh foreign office and privy to the BIBN-MVA issue said. The Bhutanese government has informed Bangladesh that it would need more time to convince local transporters about the benefits of BBIN-MVA.

It was advised by the Bhutanese parliamentarians, that the vehicles should be parked at the Indo-Bhutan border, in the Indian territory and unload the exportable goods.

What is feared by Indian and Bangladesh companies that the trucks would return empty, which would double the cost of trucking of goods, that will directly have impact on exports to Bhutan, said the official who preferred anonymity.

Meanwhile, Delhi has continued to negotiate with Thimphu for full implementation of the project and urged it for an additional protocol to it to suit Bhutan's requirements, are also not ruled out. In early May, Bhutan's Parliament would commence and is likely to withdraw a Bill on May 8 it had introduced in the country's Parliament last year to ratify the BBIN-MVA for Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic. 

Under pressure from truckers, the Upper House of Bhutan's Parliament had refused to ratify the pact, even though the lower house approved it and tried to convince seniors of the significance of this sub-regional connectivity initiative.

Several members of the Upper House, National Council, argued that the project would hurt the unique culture, tradition, environment, religion and economy of Bhutan. The National Council finally rejected the Bill in November, raising as many as 15 objections.

Neither Dhaka nor Delhi wish to expedite Thimphu to ratify the regional pact, keeping in mind that the Himalayan state will go for election in 2018.

Bangladesh, Nepal and India have already ratified BBIN-MVA and New Delhi and Dhaka have even went ahead to conduct a dry run of cargo transportation under it.

First published in The Asian Age, April 28, 2017

Saleem Samad, an Ashoka Fellow (USA), is an award winning investigating journalist and is Special Correspondent, The Asian Age, Dhaka, Bangladesh

India and Bangladesh Revitalize their Relationship, Yet Problems Remain

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina share a laughter at a joint press conference in New Delhi on April 8, 2017. (Prakash Singh/AFP/Getty Images)

ARAFAT KABIR

At a time when China has made a considerable headway in South Asia, the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and India gets a timely boost during the Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s four-day state visit to India last week. In the presence of the prime ministers, the two countries signed as many as 22 deals that included a separate agreement on civil nuclear and defense cooperation, both a first between the two South Asian neighbors. India also agreed to offer Bangladesh a $4.5 billion line of credit on top of another $3 billion that was previously sanctioned by New Delhi.

But despite that progress, Bangladesh and India had yet to finalize the long-awaited water share treaty over a common river, Teesta, further deepening Dhaka’s frustration.

Initially scheduled in December last year, but canceled twice, Hasina’s visit created a buzz in both Bangladeshi and Indian media. Bangladeshi newspapers speculated on a possible timeframe on the Teesta water sharing treaty, while Indian media focused their attention on the soon-to-be-signed defense pact. Days before Hasina’s trip to Delhi, however, it became clear that the Teesta deal was unlikely. This, in turn, stoked hype for the Indo-Bangla defense pact.

Under the defense agreement, India will offer $500 million to help Bangladesh acquire military hardware from India. However, it is not clear what types of arms India will provide. Apart from this, two other agreements were signed aiming to boost cooperation between the two nation’s defense colleges.

Significance of a Bangladesh-India defense treaty

India wanted to sign a long-term, comprehensive defense pact with Bangladesh. Delhi was already worried about the growing multidimensional cooperation between Bangladesh and China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Bangladesh in last October took the bilateral relationship to a new height. The next month Bangladesh’s navy received the delivery of two China-made diesel-electric submarines. Around the same time, Delhi scaled up its effort to seal a defense deal with Bangladesh. The underlying principle is not hard to guess: to counter the growing Chinese influence in Bangladesh.

A series of high-profile visits by Indian officials during the past few months in the run-up to Hasina's visit demonstrated India’s eagerness for a military pact. But Dhaka was hesitant to sign one in the fear that such a move might alienate China, the largest provider of Bangladesh’s military equipment.

A comprehensive military pact is, therefore, more important to India than it is to Bangladesh. For India, it serves two purposes. One, India wants to give the signal to Beijing that it regards South Asia as its zone of influence. Two, a defense deal would give a boost to Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” campaign that aims to transform India into a leading arms exporter. After all, India needs buyers of its indigenously-produced arms.

It turned out Bangladesh played out the scene quite tactfully. Since Bangladesh stopped short of signing a defense pact, it won’t alarm the Chinese. But for India, it is still an important beginning that has the potential to end in a formal treaty, given the bittersweet history between the two countries.

Hasina: a trusted friend to Delhi

The appropriate metaphor for India-Bangladesh relations could be a married couple that became estranged but started patching things up again. The mending of relations began when Sheikh Hasina’s government came to power in 2008. Her administration took a zero-tolerance policy against domestic extremism and those sympathetic to anti-Indian activities. Long considered a political pawn, Dhaka handed over separatist leader Anup Chetia to Delhi without much fuss. Dhaka also provided India with land and water transit facility, an outstanding request from India, to transport Indian goods over the Bangladeshi territory to India’s restive northeast region. In short, Sheikh Hasina appeared a trusted friend to Delhi.

The friendship was tested in 2014 when no major country except India backed up Hasina’s clinging to power through a highly-controversial election boycotted by the major opposition parties. The political violence before and after the election was one of the worst in Bangladesh’s history and Hasina’s government came under international criticism. But the then-Manmohan Singh’s government in Delhi stood firmly by Hasina’s claim that the election under the oversight of a political party instead of a non-partisan interim administration was crucial for Bangladesh’s democratic transition.

Bangladesh’s next election is slated for 2019. As of now, it is not certain whether 2014 will be repeated again or not. But it is certain that Hasina needs India’s political support. Therefore, she wants to maintain the rapport with Narendra Modi’s government. The good thing for Hasina is that she has been able to cut a strong image in Delhi across political parties. If it is any indication, Modi made an exception and went to the airport to receive Hasina.

An imbalanced quid pro quo?

Although the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and India is much better than any other time, problems linger. The Teesta water share treaty is definitely a setback for future progress. Since 2008, Hasina has met with her Indian counterparts four times. Each time Teesta was postponed due to opposition from a provincial government in India. Therefore, the Hasina administration faces criticism at home that her government is giving India more than what it gets.

The growing trade deficit is also a great concern for Bangladesh. Despite Dhaka’s repeated requests, Delhi has been tardy in relaxing tariffs and non-tariff barriers and opening up the market of Indian provinces bordering Bangladesh. Another thorny issue is shooting at the border by Indian guards. The Bangladesh-India border is one of the world’s most hostile. Authorities say almost 600 people were killed by Indian border police in the past ten years. Unofficial estimates suggest it to be twice the official figure. India promised to take care of this issue, but a meaningful solution is still elusive.

As the larger neighbor, India may want to gain more from Bangladesh. Due to the same reason, Bangladesh may very well expect India to be more generous. How a balance can be achieved will give shape to the future course of the bilateral relationship. Therefore, the sooner India addresses the unresolved issues in a meaningful manner, the better for it. Perhaps, India can take a leaf from China’s playbook in this regard.

First published in Forbes magazine, April 18, 2017

Arafat Kabir, is a Forbes contributor, a Master’s candidate of political science at the Illinois State University. Email: arafat_kabir@ymail.com or Tweet @ArafatKabirUpol

Bangladesh to invest $1Mi for construction of hydro-power in Bhutan to import 1,000MW electricity

SALEEM SAMAD

Bangladesh will finalize the negotiation to import 1000 Megawatt (MW) hydro-power from Bhutan, during the official visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Sheikh Hasina is scheduled to reach Thimphu this morning by Druk Air VVIP flight for a three-day state visit to Bhutan from April 18. Bhutanese Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay will receive her at the airport. Hasina will be presented a ceremonial Khadhar (scarf).

Later, Hasina will be given a guard of honor and she will also inspect the guard. From the airport, a ceremonial motorcade will take her to her place of residence, where she will be received by the chairman of Royal Privy Council of Bhutan.

While in Bhutan, the prime minister will sign six agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs), most importantly an investment and import of electricity from a planned hydro-electricity project in land-locked country. 

Both sides will sign deals on removal of double taxation, agriculture, cultural affairs, use of Bangladesh's inland water by Bhutan, standards of products and land given to Bangladesh for establishing a permanent embassy.

Diplomats said that Sheikh Hasina's visit would unveil a "regional power trade" a trilateral cooperation among Bhutan, Bangladesh and India.

She will also hold bilateral meetings with the country's top leaders on the sidelines. Hasina will hold meetings with Bhutan's King Jigme Wangchuck and Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay to discuss bilateral and regional issues. During her fourth visit to Bhutan, Sheikh Hasina will inaugurate the three-day International Conference on Autism and Neuro-Developmental Disorders on April 19.

Saima Wazed Hossain Putul, member of World Health Organization (WHO) expert advisory panel on mental health and chairperson of the National Advisory Committee on Autism, has taken initiatives to hold the conference in Thimphu.

The conference is being jointly hosted by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Bangladesh and Ministry of Health of Bhutan with the technical support of Shuchona Foundation, Ability Bhutan Society and WHO South-East Asia Regional Office.A draft memorandum of understanding on the trilateral collaboration is being circulated among the three friendly countries.

Bangladesh's foreign minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali told journalists said, Bangladesh will invest in the 1,125MW Dorjilung hydro-power project in Lhuentse.

The proposed hydro-electricity dam will be located about seven kilometers downstream of Autsho at a place called Rewan, said a top official with Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MPEMR).

He also said India has agreed to Bangladesh's proposal to invest in the project and provide transit for transmission of electricity from Bhutan. Government of Bangladesh recently approved USD 1Billion for the project.The International Finance Corporation (IFC), an enterprise of the World Bank Group, has already assured the government of financing regional power trade involving Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan.

A trilateral cooperation among Bhutan, Bangladesh and India that will enable Bangladesh to invest in the Bhutanese power sector to re-import the electricity could soon be a reality, said Mahmood Ali.

The foreign minister told journalists that the money will be equity investment in the project, and Bangladesh will get a proportionate share of the production from the project.

In fact, power in both Bangladesh and India will keep increasing its demand, which will contribute a big economic opportunity for Bhutan.

Currently, Bangladesh imports around 500 MW of electricity from India. Import of another amount of 100MW electricity from India's Tripura state may start in March.

Early this month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, announced that it would provide further electricity to Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina's visit to New Delhi

.

Implementation of this project will not only uplift the relation between Bhutan and Bangladesh but also the trilateral relation. "We are poised to take a big leap in the trilateral cooperation," the foreign minister said.

In addition to Bangladesh's share of production from the project, the foreign minister said his country is keen on importing either from the same project or other projects. That will be subject to negotiation among the three countries.

In 2014, member states of SAARC signed a framework agreement for energy cooperation with the declared objective of creating a regional energy market and enhancement of cross-border electricity trade.Meanwhile, the Power Division under the MPEMR has examining the MoU with Bhutan.

Earlier, Bhutanese Economic Minister Lyonpo Norbu Wangchuk had visited high-voltage direct current (HVDC) back-to-back station of the state-owned Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Ltd (PGCB) at Bheramara in Kushtia last October to see the electricity-import infrastructure in Bangladesh.

First published in The Asian Age, April 18, 2017

Saleem Samad, an Ashoka Fellow (USA), is an award winning investigating journalist and is Special Correspondent, The Asian Age, Dhaka, Bangladesh